Anybody have maths for this?

Anybody have maths for this?

Oh got it now. “(Accumulated XP / Max XP) * (X)” where X stands for 0.5, 0.3 and 0.15 for Twistshard, Frostmetal and Stormcry respectively. so if Max Gear Experience, you will get double the base success rate.

Being a priest this is the worst nightmare ever. I was lucky enough to find a couple of nice ppl on the past two days to do IoD with me wich made me gain a considerable amount of golden talents which otherwise i wouldn't have done alone, but usually everyone would find an excuse to not party for Iod and i totally undertand why.

Why would anyone spend double the amount of time to kill bams, when they can just solo fast and move on to do something else? If I were a dps i would do the same probably. Having to kill double the amount of bams is just stupid. And as priest, killing the ones that pay the most it takes hours.

Whoever thought and planned this patch probably never mained a priest, most probably hates healers (and in a special way the priest) otherwise I can't explain why they didn't came up with some kind of buff for us .

Why would anyone spend double the amount of time to kill bams, when they can just solo fast and move on to do something else? If I were a dps i would do the same probably. Having to kill double the amount of bams is just stupid. And as priest, killing the ones that pay the most it takes hours.

Whoever thought and planned this patch probably never mained a priest, most probably hates healers (and in a special way the priest) otherwise I can't explain why they didn't came up with some kind of buff for us .

Thats just -if- you succeed on every attempt, which, I tell you right now, you wont. Take me for example... I already failed 7 times trying to +4 my top weapon. Sure looking at it right now as it is other things seem cheaper and more viable, but dont let that fool you... the rng is really, really strong in this one

Nice post!

how much for Stormcry 0 to 9?

Also accessories.

how much for Stormcry 0 to 9?

Also accessories.

And jewelry etchings... ! =D

CarnalCherry145 wrote: »Thats just -if- you succeed on every attempt, which, I tell you right now, you wont. Take me for example... I already failed 7 times trying to +4 my top weapon. Sure looking at it right now as it is other things seem cheaper and more viable, but dont let that fool you... the rng is really, really strong in this one

Mind you I failed 3 times to +1 my Frost weapon, like I wasn't poor enough...

it's not that bad

so let ask EME or Anyone here. is it Really 60% success rate if you fail 3 out of 4 tries? somethings wrong with Tera's math LOL

bunch of stuff about not liking IoD

Get Dps Crystals, roll your weapon and armor with a second set of rolls, (maybe your hands, but meh probably not needed,) and change your glyphs.

There is absolutely zero reason a twistshard+0 priest can't kill basilisks, orisks, or ovoliths in the same time as any other dps (valk and war will clearly be faster.) You don't understand why they don't give you some kind of buff? They DID give mystic and priest a solo dps buff. Killing the ones that pays take hours? It might take an hour to do the 16 low tier IoD vanguards. At max. On a priest.

I think you haven't tried soloing before.

so let ask EME or Anyone here. is it Really 60% success rate if you fail 3 out of 4 tries? somethings wrong with Tera's math LOL

I don't think you understand math, specifically probabilities..

(0.60)*(0.63)*(0.66)*(0.69) = 0.1721

CassandraTR wrote: »bunch of stuff about not liking IoD

Get Dps Crystals, roll your weapon and armor with a second set of rolls, (maybe your hands, but meh probably not needed,) and change your glyphs.

There is absolutely zero reason a twistshard+0 priest can't kill basilisks, orisks, or ovoliths in the same time as any other dps (valk and war will clearly be faster.) You don't understand why they don't give you some kind of buff? They DID give mystic and priest a solo dps buff. Killing the ones that pays take hours? It might take an hour to do the 16 low tier IoD vanguards. At max. On a priest.

I think you haven't tried soloing before.

so let ask EME or Anyone here. is it Really 60% success rate if you fail 3 out of 4 tries? somethings wrong with Tera's math LOL

I don't think you understand math, specifically probabilities..

(0.60)*(0.63)*(0.66)*(0.69) = 0.1721

Cassandra is correct. You dont understand math. Each time you hit "enchant" you have a 60% chance to succeed. That 60% chance is reset each time. Its not a cumulative chance.

ah now I know!

CassandraTR wrote: »bunch of stuff about not liking IoD

Get Dps Crystals, roll your weapon and armor with a second set of rolls, (maybe your hands, but meh probably not needed,) and change your glyphs.

There is absolutely zero reason a twistshard+0 priest can't kill basilisks, orisks, or ovoliths in the same time as any other dps (valk and war will clearly be faster.) You don't understand why they don't give you some kind of buff? They DID give mystic and priest a solo dps buff. Killing the ones that pays take hours? It might take an hour to do the 16 low tier IoD vanguards. At max. On a priest.

I think you haven't tried soloing before.

(0.60)*(0.63)*(0.66)*(0.69) = 0.1721

Everything you wrote is elementary useless school teaching.

Do you think that if I'm a priest I'm that stupid/noob to not know that i can dps too?

Yesterday i did changed my glyps to dps, i did changed my crystals and zyrks, i did changed my skills on the second skillbar to can properly dps.

I did used dps pots such as lamb bulgogi and bravery potions etc, more of that being a healer i can buff myself so add that to the list too, more even, i can triple nemesis to endurance debuff and energy star to gain more dps.

EVEN SO, IT TOOK ME ONE HOUR AND 25 MINUTES TO KILL 10 BAMS! AND THERE ARE 16 VANGUARDS, 10 BAMS EACH!

So please keep the stupid considerations for yourself. There is no buffs for either mystic or priest on the Island of Down that can help us kill at the same pace as a dps. I don't have 48 hours a day to stay and stupidly farm bams. Do you?

I went in party with an archer half way through my vanguard quests and each skill was a kill, which took us around 30 minutes to finish all the vanguards, though we had to kill double the amount of bams, being in 2.

Again, if you don't have nothing constructive to say, don't say anything at all.

Frostmetal Set +0 to Stormcry Set +0

Total Cost:

Golden Daric 1074

Liquid Metal 172

Hypnotic Device 118

Archdevan Surfactant 12

**Emerald 112**

Gold 22,077

im no sure but people who dont wait for get exp gear dont have this amount esmeralds

and if you craft all is 118 k + 22 k gold = 140 k

Total Cost:

Golden Daric 1074

Liquid Metal 172

Hypnotic Device 118

Archdevan Surfactant 12

Gold 22,077

im no sure but people who dont wait for get exp gear dont have this amount esmeralds

and if you craft all is 118 k + 22 k gold = 140 k

I don't know how to DPS properly.

That's all I got from that.

You said you needed golden talents. Sixteen low tier VG gives like 260 golden talents. If it takes you 90 minutes to kill 10 basilisks (remember you said you needed golden talents,) then you need to stop playing Tera, because you have issues.

wich made me gain a considerable amount of golden talents which otherwise i wouldn't have done alone

StevenAnthony wrote: »im no sure but people who dont wait for get exp gear dont have this amount esmeralds

People who aren't waiting for gear exp have already stockpiled, or are willing to purchase emeralds at 1500g per.

CassandraTR wrote: »bunch of stuff about not liking IoD

Get Dps Crystals, roll your weapon and armor with a second set of rolls, (maybe your hands, but meh probably not needed,) and change your glyphs.

There is absolutely zero reason a twistshard+0 priest can't kill basilisks, orisks, or ovoliths in the same time as any other dps (valk and war will clearly be faster.) You don't understand why they don't give you some kind of buff? They DID give mystic and priest a solo dps buff. Killing the ones that pays take hours? It might take an hour to do the 16 low tier IoD vanguards. At max. On a priest.

I think you haven't tried soloing before.

(0.60)*(0.63)*(0.66)*(0.69) = 0.1721

Everything you wrote is elementary useless school teaching.

Do you think that if I'm a priest I'm that stupid/noob to not know that i can dps too?

Yesterday i did changed my glyps to dps, i did changed my crystals and zyrks, i did changed my skills on the second skillbar to can properly dps.

I did used dps pots such as lamb bulgogi and bravery potions etc, more of that being a healer i can buff myself so add that to the list too, more even, i can triple nemesis to endurance debuff and energy star to gain more dps.

EVEN SO, IT TOOK ME ONE HOUR AND 25 MINUTES TO KILL 10 BAMS! AND THERE ARE 16 VANGUARDS, 10 BAMS EACH!

So please keep the stupid considerations for yourself. There is no buffs for either mystic or priest on the Island of Down that can help us kill at the same pace as a dps. I don't have 48 hours a day to stay and stupidly farm bams. Do you?

I went in party with an archer half way through my vanguard quests and each skill was a kill, which took us around 30 minutes to finish all the vanguards, though we had to kill double the amount of bams, being in 2.

Again, if you don't have nothing constructive to say, don't say anything at all.

I kill 160

Unless you have like 300 ping I don't think you should be struggling so hard.

I could solo high tier bams as well if they didn't move around so much, for those I just party up personally. With a keen mote I get them in 7 sec.

CassandraTR wrote: »I don't know how to DPS properly.

That's all I got from that.

You said you needed golden talents. Sixteen low tier VG gives like 260 golden talents. If it takes you 90 minutes to kill 10 basilisks (remember you said you needed golden talents,) then you need to stop playing Tera, because you have issues.

wich made me gain a considerable amount of golden talents which otherwise i wouldn't have done alone

You need to stop being an a--ss. That's all I get from all and everything you post.

CassandraTR wrote: »

I'm not sure what you just calculated...

The chance of him failing three times with a base 60% success rate is (0.40)*(0.37)*(0.34) = 0.05 or 5%. So yes, while it's very low likelihood that you will fail 3 out of 3 tries, there is still a 5% chance that you will.

Failing a 4 out of 4 tries: (0.40)*(0.37)*(0.34)*(0.31) = 0.0156 or 1.56%. The complement of this would a 98.44% chance that you will succeed in one of the four tries. However, each try in of itself is an independent event, and you will not enjoy better than 60% base chance (+ however much % failure correction) per attempt.

CornishRex wrote: »CassandraTR wrote: »

Which is what i did, with a bit of luck. Fortunately not everyone is an a...ole like Cassandra, and no, he wasn't being constructive at all. I don't need low tier bams as basilisks, i need the ones that can help me upgrade my frost gear to stormcry. I wond' do it killing basilisks. I would rather do dungeons for that.

CassandraTR wrote: »

I'm not sure what you just calculated...

That would be the success rate, going up by 3% every time there's a failure.

KarmaTheAlligator wrote: »CassandraTR wrote: »

I'm not sure what you just calculated...

That would be the success rate, going up by 3% every time there's a failure.

Why are they being multiplied? :thonking:

0.1721 is the chance of getting four consecutive successful enchants in a row. Except the success rate won't go up by 3% if you succeed so...nani?

We can argue that gearing up with the new system is hard or easy, but I think the main problem here is the lack of actual game content.

We keep grinding and gearing up for absolutely no reason but to stroke our e-peen whenever our iLvl goes up. On top of that, we will replace them with another set of gear in a few months anyway.

The lack of game content is a problem, because the devs are just making the gearing up part the actual core gameplay.

TERA was known for its cool combat, dungeons, and PvP. But now all those things are just a side content to the actual core gameplay, which is gearing up endlessly...

We keep grinding and gearing up for absolutely no reason but to stroke our e-peen whenever our iLvl goes up. On top of that, we will replace them with another set of gear in a few months anyway.

The lack of game content is a problem, because the devs are just making the gearing up part the actual core gameplay.

TERA was known for its cool combat, dungeons, and PvP. But now all those things are just a side content to the actual core gameplay, which is gearing up endlessly...

CornishRex wrote:

I could solo high tier bams as well if they didn't move around so much, for those I just party up personally. With a keen mote I get them in 7 sec.

Which is what i did, with a bit of luck. Fortunately not everyone is an a...ole like Cassandra, and no, he wasn't being constructive at all. I don't need low tier bams as basilisks, i need the ones that can help me upgrade my frost gear to stormcry. I wond' do it killing basilisks. I would rather do dungeons for that.

Ah my bad you were doing high tiers. I usually finish up my dailies by doing mid tiers, I just convert their tokens into the high tier ones. If I recall 16 dailies of mid tier bams = 92 high tier tokens after conversion. Also 100+ golden talents!

No child left behind, or should I say, no tera players left behind.KarmaTheAlligator wrote: »CassandraTR wrote: »

I'm not sure what you just calculated...

That would be the success rate, going up by 3% every time there's a failure.

Why are they being multiplied? :thonking:

0.1721 is the chance of getting four consecutive successful enchants in a row. Except the success rate won't go up by 3% if you succeed so...nani?

CornishRex wrote:

I could solo high tier bams as well if they didn't move around so much, for those I just party up personally. With a keen mote I get them in 7 sec.

Which is what i did, with a bit of luck. Fortunately not everyone is an a...ole like Cassandra, and no, he wasn't being constructive at all. I don't need low tier bams as basilisks,i need the ones that can help me upgrade my frost gear to stormcry.I wond' do it killing basilisks. I would rather do dungeons for that.

......................you can dismantes low flood mats to tokens and later gets unknow liqui, metals, ash, devices, etc

only hight tier boxes ( from high tier bams ) can gave this mats ( and dimensional frgaments for jewerye) but do it with priest without firends is realy the hard way.

"You don't understand math" while both of you are completely wrong about it. Classic.CassandraTR wrote: »I don't think you understand math, specifically probabilities..

(0.60)*(0.63)*(0.66)*(0.69) = 0.1721

Cassandra is correct. You dont understand math. Each time you hit "enchant" you have a 60% chance to succeed. That 60% chance is reset each time. Its not a cumulative chance.

FYI, you've calculated the chance to enchant 4 times in a row with 60%, 63%, 66% and 69% probability on each respectively, which makes no sense. To calculate the chance to fail 3 times in a row:

(1-0.6)*(1-0.63)*(1-0.66)

Which is 5% and is not as small as you may think. 5% means 1 out of 20 people

CornishRex wrote: »CassandraTR wrote: »bunch of stuff about not liking IoD

Get Dps Crystals, roll your weapon and armor with a second set of rolls, (maybe your hands, but meh probably not needed,) and change your glyphs.

There is absolutely zero reason a twistshard+0 priest can't kill basilisks, orisks, or ovoliths in the same time as any other dps (valk and war will clearly be faster.) You don't understand why they don't give you some kind of buff? They DID give mystic and priest a solo dps buff. Killing the ones that pays take hours? It might take an hour to do the 16 low tier IoD vanguards. At max. On a priest.

I think you haven't tried soloing before.

(0.60)*(0.63)*(0.66)*(0.69) = 0.1721

Everything you wrote is elementary useless school teaching.

Do you think that if I'm a priest I'm that stupid/noob to not know that i can dps too?

Yesterday i did changed my glyps to dps, i did changed my crystals and zyrks, i did changed my skills on the second skillbar to can properly dps.

I did used dps pots such as lamb bulgogi and bravery potions etc, more of that being a healer i can buff myself so add that to the list too, more even, i can triple nemesis to endurance debuff and energy star to gain more dps.

EVEN SO, IT TOOK ME ONE HOUR AND 25 MINUTES TO KILL 10 BAMS! AND THERE ARE 16 VANGUARDS, 10 BAMS EACH!

So please keep the stupid considerations for yourself. There is no buffs for either mystic or priest on the Island of Down that can help us kill at the same pace as a dps. I don't have 48 hours a day to stay and stupidly farm bams. Do you?

I went in party with an archer half way through my vanguard quests and each skill was a kill, which took us around 30 minutes to finish all the vanguards, though we had to kill double the amount of bams, being in 2.

Again, if you don't have nothing constructive to say, don't say anything at all.

I kill 160midtier bams as priest in one hour. We got the buff 1 year ago and its pretty easy, I must say I was surprised. At most it takes me 30 sec to kill a teralith, at best 4 sec with a keen mote (and they drop at a considerate amount so it's not that bad. That guy is being constructive as hell tho, you're just bad at dpsing as a priest I guess.

Unless you have like 300 ping I don't think you should be struggling so hard.

I could solo high tier bams as well if they didn't move around so much, for those I just party up personally. With a keen mote I get them in 7 sec.

Solo your high tier bams too. A Naga at most takes 20 seconds and high record of 5 sec (with keen and dragon proc at the right time with infinite final reprisals), a hydrath is about 8 to 30 sec. For giants... well you just don't do giants as a priest lol.

Edit: another tip, slap on a slaying crystal

Can confirm slaying IoD/Ghilli is pretty fast on priest. I still hate it and rarely do it (its been maybe three patches since I've touched IoD on a healer) but it's still fast and there's pretty much no risk since you can always heal/cleanse yourself if you need to.

misleading for frostmetal and stormcry:

at max gear exp, the caps for frostmetal is base%+30%

- so 60% you can still fail, it will add a perm 63%, then you grind full exp again to get another 30%

- rinse/repeat until you get 100%

stormcry gear exp adds 15% each time, so base%+15%

-fail enchant

-grind exp

-repeat until 100%

at max gear exp, the caps for frostmetal is base%+30%

- so 60% you can still fail, it will add a perm 63%, then you grind full exp again to get another 30%

- rinse/repeat until you get 100%

stormcry gear exp adds 15% each time, so base%+15%

-fail enchant

-grind exp

-repeat until 100%

SirachaNinja wrote: »misleading for frostmetal and stormcry:

at max gear exp, the caps for frostmetal is base%+30%

- so 60% you can still fail, it will add a perm 63%, then you grind full exp again to get another 30%

- rinse/repeat until you get 100%

stormcry gear exp adds 15% each time, so base%+15%

-fail enchant

-grind exp

-repeat until 100%

Dafuq???

SirachaNinja wrote: »misleading for frostmetal and stormcry:

at max gear exp, the caps for frostmetal is base%+30%

- so 60% you can still fail, it will add a perm 63%, then you grind full exp again to get another 30%

- rinse/repeat until you get 100%

stormcry gear exp adds 15% each time, so base%+15%

-fail enchant

-grind exp

-repeat until 100%

Dafuq???

Waaaaat>?

Being a priest this is the worst nightmare ever. I was lucky enough to find a couple of nice ppl on the past two days to do IoD with me wich made me gain a considerable amount of golden talents which otherwise i wouldn't have done alone, but usually everyone would find an excuse to not party for Iod and i totally undertand why.

Why would anyone spend double the amount of time to kill bams, when they can just solo fast and move on to do something else? If I were a dps i would do the same probably. Having to kill double the amount of bams is just stupid. And as priest, killing the ones that pay the most it takes hours.

Whoever thought and planned this patch probably never mained a priest, most probably hates healers (and in a special way the priest) otherwise I can't explain why they didn't came up with some kind of buff for us .

if you're cute ill run you through IoD everyday

Which is what i did, with a bit of luck. Fortunately not everyone is an a...ole like Cassandra, and no, he wasn't being constructive at all. I don't need low tier bams as basilisks, i need the ones that can help me upgrade my frost gear to stormcry. I wond' do it killing basilisks. I would rather do dungeons for that.

You can call me whatever you want, the point is that priest and mystic can solo, you just need practice. Last patch my misery+12 healers could solo high tier bams, not in 10-20 seconds like brawler, warrior, valk, or archer, but each bam could be done as a healer in 45 sec-1 min easily. Less with a keen mote. They did not buff them so much that it now takes 9 minutes to kill each high tier bam on a healer. So you can take your rage and direct it at yourself.

(And again, you specifically mentioned that you needed golden talents in your post. I even quoted it, because I knew you would say "hurr durr priest is hard, no i meant high tier bams hurr durr.")

wich made me gain a considerable amount of golden talents which otherwise i wouldn't have done alone

When someone says "you might be doing it wrong," your first response shouldn't be to get triggered, ask for a safe space, and blame them. If it's taking you 9 minutes to kill a Naga, the problem is with you.

No, the internet will never be happy with anything anybody says.

CornishRex wrote: »I kill 160midtier bams as priest in one hour. We got the buff 1 year ago and its pretty easy, I must say I was surprised. At most it takes me 30 sec to kill a teralith, at best 4 sec with a keen mote (and they drop at a considerate amount so it's not that bad.

I don't know what class you're playing but it's not a priest at that rate. I solo a mid-tier bam as ninja in 1 minute. It takes me 2 seconds with a keen mote (which drops once every 30 bams killed ffs) so I think it'd be pretty bad for a priest. You on the other hand most likely have some +9 frostmetal or stormcry cuz with Twistshard it's pretty damn hard. If you want to talk DPS, I can manage around 1m/sec with only a major prime bottle (no root beers or lamb bulgogi, etc.).

Being a priest this is the worst nightmare ever. I was lucky enough to find a couple of nice ppl on the past two days to do IoD with me wich made me gain a considerable amount of golden talents which otherwise i wouldn't have done alone, but usually everyone would find an excuse to not party for Iod and i totally undertand why.

Why would anyone spend double the amount of time to kill bams, when they can just solo fast and move on to do something else? If I were a dps i would do the same probably. Having to kill double the amount of bams is just stupid. And as priest, killing the ones that pay the most it takes hours.

Whoever thought and planned this patch probably never mained a priest, most probably hates healers (and in a special way the priest) otherwise I can't explain why they didn't came up with some kind of buff for us .

Give healers a huge dps boost while in IOD please! EZPZ

FoolishTruths wrote: »CornishRex wrote: »I kill 160midtier bams as priest in one hour. We got the buff 1 year ago and its pretty easy, I must say I was surprised. At most it takes me 30 sec to kill a teralith, at best 4 sec with a keen mote (and they drop at a considerate amount so it's not that bad.

I don't know what class you're playing but it's not a priest at that rate. I solo a mid-tier bam as ninja in 1 minute. It takes me 2 seconds with a keen mote (which drops once every 30 bams killed ffs) so I think it'd be pretty bad for a priest. You on the other hand most likely have some +9 frostmetal or stormcry cuz with Twistshard it's pretty damn hard. If you want to talk DPS, I can manage around 1m/sec with only a major prime bottle (no root beers or lamb bulgogi, etc.).

My priest is stormcry yes but I solo mid tiers (aka teraliths, others aren't worth mentioning) with twistshard gunner and brawler in under 20 sec so I think you're just doing things wrong? Idk how bad ninjas have it but I don't think it's that bad.

You should always use the equivalent of everful nostrum or w.e the elite version is called.

@Arwen zyrk? Thos old green cra/p? I did iod myself as priest and its ~10+12 quests an hour. No time? Then tera isnt for you I guess.

Actually there could be some merit to this statement. However, you forgot that there is an extra 3% chance to succeed every time you fail an enchantment.

Let me attempt to shed some light on this statement. Disregarding this extra % chance, each enchantment attempt is independent of each other, i.e. each enchantment attempt do not affect the success rate of another such attempt. Hence, you can use the multiplicative rule here to calculate the % chance of only succeeding on the 4th try: 0.40*0.37*0.34*0.69 = 0.0347208 = 3.47% chance:

0.40 - chance of failing on 1st attempt

0.37 - chance of failing on 2nd attempt

0.34 - chance of failing on 3rd attempt

0.69 - chance of succeeding on the 4th attempt

By conducting a hypothesis testing at say a significance level of 0.05, and checking for the % chance of only succeedin at the 4th attempt, the % probability is 3.47%, which is lower than the 5% significance level. Hence, there could be a possibility that the success rate of this enchantment attempt is not 60% as stated. (There is also a possibility that you are just very unlucky.)

@biboy24

You should also include the total amount of item exp needed to maximize the enchantment success rate for each tier of equipment.

You should also include the total amount of item exp needed to maximize the enchantment success rate for each tier of equipment.

Actually there could be some merit to this statement. However, you forgot that there is an extra 3% chance to succeed every time you fail an enchantment.

Let me attempt to shed some light on this statement. Disregarding this extra % chance, each enchantment attempt is independent of each other, i.e. each enchantment attempt do not affect the success rate of another such attempt. Hence, you can use the multiplicative rule here to calculate the % chance of only succeeding on the 4th try: 0.40*0.37*0.34*0.69 = 0.0347208 = 3.47% chance:

0.40 - chance of failing on 1st attempt

0.37 - chance of failing on 2nd attempt

0.34 - chance of failing on 3rd attempt

0.69 - chance of succeeding on the 4th attempt

By conducting a hypothesis testing at say a significance level of 0.05, and checking for the % chance of only succeedin at the 4th attempt, the % probability is 3.47%, which is lower than the 5% significance level. Hence, there could be a possibility that the success rate of this enchantment attempt is not 60% as stated. (There is also a possibility that you are just very unlucky.)

Thank you for this. unlike with the earlier response, its like they just want say "I don't think you understand math" rather than giving me the right info

CassandraTR wrote: »

I'm not sure what you just calculated...

The chance of him failing three times with a base 60% success rate is (0.40)*(0.37)*(0.34) = 0.05 or 5%. So yes, while it's very low likelihood that you will fail 3 out of 3 tries, there is still a 5% chance that you will.

Failing 4 out of 4 tries: (0.40)*(0.37)*(0.34)*(0.31) = 0.0156 or 1.56%. The complement of this would a 98.44% chance that you will succeed in one of the four tries. However, each try in of itself is an independent event, and you will not enjoy better than 60% base chance (+ however much % failure correction) per attempt.

thank you for thiss

"You don't understand math" while both of you are completely wrong about it. Classic.CassandraTR wrote: »I don't think you understand math, specifically probabilities..

(0.60)*(0.63)*(0.66)*(0.69) = 0.1721

Cassandra is correct. You dont understand math. Each time you hit "enchant" you have a 60% chance to succeed. That 60% chance is reset each time. Its not a cumulative chance.

FYI, you've calculated the chance to enchant 4 times in a row with 60%, 63%, 66% and 69% probability on each respectively, which makes no sense. To calculate the chance to fail 3 times in a row:

(1-0.6)*(1-0.63)*(1-0.66)

Which is 5% and is not as small as you may think. 5% means 1 out of 20 peoplewillexperience this. If TERA has 2000 players that means 100 players will experience 3 failures in a row.

thank you for this info too! not like the other two

Actually there could be some merit to this statement. However, you forgot that there is an extra 3% chance to succeed every time you fail an enchantment.

Let me attempt to shed some light on this statement. Disregarding this extra % chance, each enchantment attempt is independent of each other, i.e. each enchantment attempt do not affect the success rate of another such attempt. Hence, you can use the multiplicative rule here to calculate the % chance of only succeeding on the 4th try: 0.40*0.37*0.34*0.69 = 0.0347208 = 3.47% chance:

0.40 - chance of failing on 1st attempt

0.37 - chance of failing on 2nd attempt

0.34 - chance of failing on 3rd attempt

0.69 - chance of succeeding on the 4th attempt

By conducting a hypothesis testing at say a significance level of 0.05, and checking for the % chance of only succeeding at the 4th attempt, the % probability is 3.47%, which is lower than the 5% significance level. Hence, there could be a possibility that the success rate of this enchantment attempt is not 60% as stated. (There is also a possibility that you are just very unlucky.)

What in the...

your 3.47% is not a p-value, it's the actual likelihood of succeeding on the 4th and only 4th try, so not only is that percentage useless because what you really want to know is the likelihood of an event occurring within 4 tries (not just on the fourth), but it's not even something that you can deem significant or not significant based on your desired alpha cutoff of 0.05. Again, it's not a p-value.

???????

Actually there could be some merit to this statement. However, you forgot that there is an extra 3% chance to succeed every time you fail an enchantment.

Let me attempt to shed some light on this statement. Disregarding this extra % chance, each enchantment attempt is independent of each other, i.e. each enchantment attempt do not affect the success rate of another such attempt. Hence, you can use the multiplicative rule here to calculate the % chance of only succeeding on the 4th try: 0.40*0.37*0.34*0.69 = 0.0347208 = 3.47% chance:

0.40 - chance of failing on 1st attempt

0.37 - chance of failing on 2nd attempt

0.34 - chance of failing on 3rd attempt

0.69 - chance of succeeding on the 4th attempt

By conducting a hypothesis testing at say a significance level of 0.05, and checking for the % chance of only succeeding at the 4th attempt, the % probability is 3.47%, which is lower than the 5% significance level. Hence, there could be a possibility that the success rate of this enchantment attempt is not 60% as stated. (There is also a possibility that you are just very unlucky.)

What in the...

your 3.47% is not a p-value, it's the actual likelihood of succeeding on the 4th and only 4th try, so not only is that percentage useless because what you really want to know is the likelihood of an event occurring within 4 tries (not just on the fourth), but it's not even something that you can deem significant or not significant based on your desired alpha cutoff of 0.05. Again, it's not a p-value.

???????

1. I agree with your first point; I've made a terrible mistake calculating the p-value. While the p-value here isn't just the probability of only succeeding on the 4th try, but the p-value is actually the summation of all probabilities of only succeeding on the 4th try and beyond (till the 15th try because there is 100% chance it will succeed on the 15th try) and NOT the probability of succeeding within 4 tries. Hence, using an excel sheet, I've calculated the p-value again, which is now 0.05032 = 5.032%. Now this falls just slightly above the alpha value of 5%, so it is debatable but I would say that there is not enough evidence to suggest that the enchantment % is not 60%.

2. I disagree with your second point, because the alpha value of 0.05 is a very commonly used alpha value for hypotheis testing. You can check it up on Google and in statistics textbooks if you don't believe me. This value of 0.05 is a balance between making a Type 1 error (an incorrect rejection of a null hypothesis - in this case, showing that the enchantment % is not 60% while in actual fact, it is 60%) and making a Type 2 error (failure to eject null hypothesis - in this case, showing that the enchantment % is 60% while in actual fact, it is not 60%). The alpha value here I've stated is not one tha I have conjured randomly, but yes, there are other specific cases where other alpha values are used.

Sry @biboy24

Actually there could be some merit to this statement. However, you forgot that there is an extra 3% chance to succeed every time you fail an enchantment.

Let me attempt to shed some light on this statement. Disregarding this extra % chance, each enchantment attempt is independent of each other, i.e. each enchantment attempt do not affect the success rate of another such attempt. Hence, you can use the multiplicative rule here to calculate the % chance of only succeeding on the 4th try: 0.40*0.37*0.34*0.69 = 0.0347208 = 3.47% chance:

0.40 - chance of failing on 1st attempt

0.37 - chance of failing on 2nd attempt

0.34 - chance of failing on 3rd attempt

0.69 - chance of succeeding on the 4th attempt

By conducting a hypothesis testing at say a significance level of 0.05, and checking for the % chance of only succeeding at the 4th attempt, the % probability is 3.47%, which is lower than the 5% significance level. Hence, there could be a possibility that the success rate of this enchantment attempt is not 60% as stated. (There is also a possibility that you are just very unlucky.)

What in the...

your 3.47% is not a p-value, it's the actual likelihood of succeeding on the 4th and only 4th try, so not only is that percentage useless because what you really want to know is the likelihood of an event occurring within 4 tries (not just on the fourth), but it's not even something that you can deem significant or not significant based on your desired alpha cutoff of 0.05. Again, it's not a p-value.

???????

1. I agree that I have made a terrible mistake calculating the p-value, while I disagree on how you want to calculate the p-value. p-value should have been the probability of an event and its more extreme cases of occurring, which in this case is the summation of the probabilties of succeeding on the 4th attempt and beyond, up to 15 attempts (since the enchantment chance is 100% at the 15th attempt), and not either the probability of succeeding only on the 4th attempt, nor the probability of succeeding at the 1st to 4th attempt. Hence, I have recalculated the p-value, which gives 0.05032 = 5.032%, which is nearly equal to the alpha-value. Thus, it is debatable but it seems that there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the enchantment chance is not 60%.

2. I disagree with your point of me making up a random alpha-value. If you had conducted a simple Google search or read some textbooks on statistics, you will see that the most common alpha value used is 0.05, because it is a good balance between Type 1 error (when one incorrectly rejects the null hypothesis, in this case, when one concludes that the enchantment chance is not 60%, while in actual fact, it is) and Type 2 error (when one fails to reject the null hypothesis, in this case, when one concludes that the enchantment chance is 60%, while in actual fact, it is not). Hence, I did not conjour up the alpha-value by myself, but yes, other alpha-values like 0.1 and 0.01 have been used also in special circumstances.

CornishRex wrote: »My priest is stormcry yes but I solo mid tiers (aka teraliths, others aren't worth mentioning) with twistshard gunner and brawler in under 20 sec so I think you're just doing things wrong? Idk how bad ninjas have it but I don't think it's that bad.

You should always use the equivalent of everful nostrum or w.e the elite version is called.

Well Ninja isn't that strong imho. I'd like to think I'm a decent Ninja as my DPS is usually 1st or 2nd (never 3rd) in IMS. The problem is that Ninja needs Slaying in order to outdps a warrior who doesn't have slaying. So far the highest Ninja DPS (In all of TERA) I've seen is only 3M/s with Slaying. Gunner and Brawler are much stronger than Ninja and require less buttons pressed when soloing BAMs. Even though I'm not very skilled with Gunner or Brawler I can manage a nice 30-40 secs with +0 Twistshard gear and Bellum accessories on them.

Stormcry on a priest to solo mid-tier BAMs is a bit overkill and is on a whole new level compared to Twistshard or Frostmetal. I think OP isn't doing that bad considering their gear.

Actually there could be some merit to this statement. However, you forgot that there is an extra 3% chance to succeed every time you fail an enchantment.

Let me attempt to shed some light on this statement. Disregarding this extra % chance, each enchantment attempt is independent of each other, i.e. each enchantment attempt do not affect the success rate of another such attempt. Hence, you can use the multiplicative rule here to calculate the % chance of only succeeding on the 4th try: 0.40*0.37*0.34*0.69 = 0.0347208 = 3.47% chance:

0.40 - chance of failing on 1st attempt

0.37 - chance of failing on 2nd attempt

0.34 - chance of failing on 3rd attempt

0.69 - chance of succeeding on the 4th attempt

By conducting a hypothesis testing at say a significance level of 0.05, and checking for the % chance of only succeeding at the 4th attempt, the % probability is 3.47%, which is lower than the 5% significance level. Hence, there could be a possibility that the success rate of this enchantment attempt is not 60% as stated. (There is also a possibility that you are just very unlucky.)

What in the...

your 3.47% is not a p-value, it's the actual likelihood of succeeding on the 4th and only 4th try, so not only is that percentage useless because what you really want to know is the likelihood of an event occurring within 4 tries (not just on the fourth), but it's not even something that you can deem significant or not significant based on your desired alpha cutoff of 0.05. Again, it's not a p-value.

???????

1. I agree that I have made a terrible mistake calculating the p-value, while I disagree on how you want to calculate the p-value. p-value should have been the probability of an event and its more extreme cases of occurring, which in this case is the summation of the probabilties of succeeding on the 4th attempt and beyond, up to 15 attempts (since the enchantment chance is 100% at the 15th attempt), and not either the probability of succeeding only on the 4th attempt, nor the probability of succeeding at the 1st to 4th attempt. Hence, I have recalculated the p-value, which gives 0.05032 = 5.032%, which is nearly equal to the alpha-value. Thus, it is debatable but it seems that there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the enchantment chance is not 60%.

2. I disagree with your point of me making up a random alpha-value. If you had conducted a simple Google search or read some textbooks on statistics, you will see that the most common alpha value used is 0.05, because it is a good balance between Type 1 error (when one incorrectly rejects the null hypothesis, in this case, when one concludes that the enchantment chance is not 60%, while in actual fact, it is) and Type 2 error (when one fails to reject the null hypothesis, in this case, when one concludes that the enchantment chance is 60%, while in actual fact, it is not). Hence, I did not conjour up the alpha-value by myself, but yes, other alpha-values like 0.1 and 0.01 have been used also in special circumstances.

I never said you made up your alpha. Yes 0.05 is used ubiquitously across many fields and areas of research and statistics, that's fine. What you are misunderstanding is when a p-value is to be used to make conclusions about a hypothesis-based test.

I flip a coin, the probability of heads is 0.50, which is more than 0.05, so it is significant. Do you see the problem here? Significance is a property of a comparison, and does not describe a standalone event. Using significance to describe this is meaningless: The probability of heads is 0.50, hence it is significant, but so is tails, because it's also 0.50. There is no comparison here. The same can be said about tossing a six-sided die. Each number has a 0.167 chance of showing up, does that mean they're significant? What if it was a 50 sided die? Does that mean they are not significant? You don't use significance to describe these events, it's meaningless.

Instead if you were comparing two different dice, and maybe one of them was unfair, that's when you can use significance. Over a sufficiently large n, you simulate enough rolls to obtain a distribution of tosses and now are faced with the question if one die is SIGNIFICANTLY different from the other, that's where you use the p-value. This is where you calculate a test statistic (could be z or t or whatever distribution or assumptions you make). The test statistic CORRESPONDS to a p-value based on the distribution, (e.g. z = +/- 1.96 corresponds to a p of 0.05 for a two-tailed test), and then based on whether or not that p-value is more or less than your alpha, you can then accept/reject the null.

Regardless of if your calculation was correct or incorrect for his probability of success on enchanting a weapon in x number of tries, using significance or hypothesis testing is meaningless. You've already calculated precisely his chance of succeeding. That 3.47% or 5.03% is a discrete measurement of his likelihood of success, you don't need to further qualify that number as significant or not, the answer is already there. The only time you need significance to describe something is if you were going to compare something, like if one weapon had a 30% chance of succeeding while another weapon had a 50% chance. After simulating enchanting both weapons x number of times, is there a significant difference in the number of tries needed to succeed? Only in this situation can you formulate a testable hypothesis.

FoolishTruths wrote: »CornishRex wrote: »My priest is stormcry yes but I solo mid tiers (aka teraliths, others aren't worth mentioning) with twistshard gunner and brawler in under 20 sec so I think you're just doing things wrong? Idk how bad ninjas have it but I don't think it's that bad.

You should always use the equivalent of everful nostrum or w.e the elite version is called.

Well Ninja isn't that strong imho. I'd like to think I'm a decent Ninja as my DPS is usually 1st or 2nd (never 3rd) in IMS. The problem is that Ninja needs Slaying in order to outdps a warrior who doesn't have slaying. So far the highest Ninja DPS (In all of TERA) I've seen is only 3M/s with Slaying. Gunner and Brawler are much stronger than Ninja and require less buttons pressed when soloing BAMs. Even though I'm not very skilled with Gunner or Brawler I can manage a nice 30-40 secs with +0 Twistshard gear and Bellum accessories on them.

Stormcry on a priest to solo mid-tier BAMs is a bit overkill and is on a whole new level compared to Twistshard or Frostmetal. I think OP isn't doing that bad considering their gear.

Eh, I'm doing pretty much the same when it comes to damage on my twist mystic so I don't think stormcry makes that much of a difference cause it's a healer weapon, not a dps one, I'd have to look at the stats cause I'm pulling things out of my [filtered] rn.

And I know ninjas are last in the dps list due to the lack of talents but they should still be doing better than a priest.

Healers deal 300% damage to IoD bams.CornishRex wrote: »FoolishTruths wrote: »CornishRex wrote: »My priest is stormcry yes but I solo mid tiers (aka teraliths, others aren't worth mentioning) with twistshard gunner and brawler in under 20 sec so I think you're just doing things wrong? Idk how bad ninjas have it but I don't think it's that bad.

You should always use the equivalent of everful nostrum or w.e the elite version is called.

Well Ninja isn't that strong imho. I'd like to think I'm a decent Ninja as my DPS is usually 1st or 2nd (never 3rd) in IMS. The problem is that Ninja needs Slaying in order to outdps a warrior who doesn't have slaying. So far the highest Ninja DPS (In all of TERA) I've seen is only 3M/s with Slaying. Gunner and Brawler are much stronger than Ninja and require less buttons pressed when soloing BAMs. Even though I'm not very skilled with Gunner or Brawler I can manage a nice 30-40 secs with +0 Twistshard gear and Bellum accessories on them.

Stormcry on a priest to solo mid-tier BAMs is a bit overkill and is on a whole new level compared to Twistshard or Frostmetal. I think OP isn't doing that bad considering their gear.

Eh, I'm doing pretty much the same when it comes to damage on my twist mystic so I don't think stormcry makes that much of a difference cause it's a healer weapon, not a dps one, I'd have to look at the stats cause I'm pulling things out of my [filtered] rn.

And I know ninjas are last in the dps list due to the lack of talents but they should still be doing better than a priest.

Healers deal 300% damage to IoD bams.CornishRex wrote: »FoolishTruths wrote: »CornishRex wrote: »

You should always use the equivalent of everful nostrum or w.e the elite version is called.

Well Ninja isn't that strong imho. I'd like to think I'm a decent Ninja as my DPS is usually 1st or 2nd (never 3rd) in IMS. The problem is that Ninja needs Slaying in order to outdps a warrior who doesn't have slaying. So far the highest Ninja DPS (In all of TERA) I've seen is only 3M/s with Slaying. Gunner and Brawler are much stronger than Ninja and require less buttons pressed when soloing BAMs. Even though I'm not very skilled with Gunner or Brawler I can manage a nice 30-40 secs with +0 Twistshard gear and Bellum accessories on them.

Stormcry on a priest to solo mid-tier BAMs is a bit overkill and is on a whole new level compared to Twistshard or Frostmetal. I think OP isn't doing that bad considering their gear.

Eh, I'm doing pretty much the same when it comes to damage on my twist mystic so I don't think stormcry makes that much of a difference cause it's a healer weapon, not a dps one, I'd have to look at the stats cause I'm pulling things out of my [filtered] rn.

And I know ninjas are last in the dps list due to the lack of talents but they should still be doing better than a priest.

Yes, I know, they still shouldnt compete with proper dps and they don't. My slayer kills faster, my gunner does, my brawler does. And my priest is stormcry with dps rolls and dps crystals and glyphs while the rest aren't equipped that well. A twist mystic MIGHT outdps a twist ninja but I doubt it. Priest hell no, they're weaker in terms of dps.

CornishRex wrote: »Eh, I'm doing pretty much the same when it comes to damage on my twist mystic so I don't think stormcry makes that much of a difference cause it's a healer weapon, not a dps one, I'd have to look at the stats cause I'm pulling things out of my [filtered] rn.

And I know ninjas are last in the dps list due to the lack of talents but they should still be doing better than a priest.

After getting my twisthard weapon to +5 (everything else is +0) and changing from Energetic II to Keen II etching on wep and glove, I can kill mid-tier BAMs in 20-30 secs with a 1 second record on my Ninja. With Energetic II I manage around 28-40 secs.

CornishRex wrote: »Yes, I know, they still shouldnt compete with proper dps and they don't. My slayer kills faster, my gunner does, my brawler does. And my priest is stormcry with dps rolls and dps crystals and glyphs while the rest aren't equipped that well. A twist mystic MIGHT outdps a twist ninja but I doubt it. Priest hell no, they're weaker in terms of dps.

I don't think my Mystic can outdps my ninja but it does come close to the kill time.

Why would anyone spend double the amount of time to kill bams, when they can just solo fast and move on to do something else? If I were a dps i would do the same probably. Having to kill double the amount of bams is just stupid. And as priest, killing the ones that pay the most it takes hours.

Whoever thought and planned this patch probably never mained a priest, most probably hates healers (and in a special way the priest) otherwise I can't explain why they didn't came up with some kind of buff for us .

if you're cute ill run you through IoD everyday

ROFL

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